A flurry of Executive Orders signed at the beginning of the second Trump administration seek significant changes in how the U.S. government is run. One holdover from the first Trump administration is the move to impose tariffs on imports.
President Trump has long been vocal about his support for tariffs on goods imported by the United States. While there is no shortage of analysis of the projected impacts of broad-based tariffs on the U.S. economy, Bread for the World focuses specifically on how tariffs are likely to increase U.S. food insecurity and hunger.
Tariffs were first announced on Canada, Mexico, and China on February 1, 2025. At this writing, many of these original tariffs have gone through several rounds of pause and modifications. The administration’s current pause will last until April 2, but it is currently unclear whether or when these tariffs, variations of them, or future iterations will be imposed or reimposed.
Nearly all economists agree that tariffs, especially if applied to key trading partners and allies, will raise prices for U.S. consumers. In the latest tariff pause, the administration also acknowledged that tariffs would negatively impact U.S. farmers. The U.S. relies heavily on Canada and Mexico for non-durable goods, especially food. Last year, for example, the U.S. imported $10.8 billion in fruits from Mexico, $14.6 billion in vegetables from Mexico and Canada, $11.6 billion in grains from Mexico and Canada, $9.8 billion in livestock and meats from both countries, and $10.2 billion in sugar, tree nuts, dairy, and poultry – a total of almost $57 billion. All of these imports, whether raw goods or finished products, would be subject to the now-paused 25 percent tariffs on both countries.
The most recent estimates are that the U.S. produces about 4,000 calories per person, per day. However, many of those calories come from less healthy foods and “empty calories,” such as fats and oils, grain products, and sugars and sweeteners.
Mexico and Canada are the sources of a large share of U.S. fruit and vegetable imports— in 2022, they produced 53 percent of fresh fruit imports and 89 percent of fresh vegetable imports. Companies that import goods generally do so in large quantities, and rather than absorb all the tariffs, they are likely to pass much if not all of the cost increase on to their customers.
Higher food prices mean that Americans have less purchasing power at the grocery store. Tens of millions of people who participate in federal nutrition programs such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Woman, Infants, and Children (WIC) often struggle to afford nutritious food now, before the effects of tariffs are factored in. The household budget is tight—there are few other items that can be cut to adjust to sudden increases in food prices. Families are likely to be forced to buy less nutritious but more filling food and/or to buy less food altogether.
While SNAP benefits are generally adjusted annually for inflation, they would not be increased for sudden jumps in prices, including those caused by tariffs. The average SNAP benefit is about $6 per day, and some studies suggest that SNAP benefits only last through half the month.
Another large group—more than a third of all food-insecure people in the U.S.—are not eligible for SNAP because their incomes are above the eligibility limit. Still others are ineligible due to policies that limit participation by people without dependent children, people with certain felony convictions, and others. All food-insecure people would be hit disproportionately by tariffs.
In effect, tariffs that lead to higher food prices would be a tax on American families. If the originally proposed tariffs, including those on food, were to go into effect, they could cost the typical U.S. household $1,200 a year. The combined impacts would harm the U.S. economy and hinder efforts to reduce hunger and poverty.
These projections of the likely impacts do not take into account the effects of the retaliatory tariffs that other countries would almost certainly impose on U.S. products that they import.
Tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada should remain paused because they would contribute significantly to food insecurity among our most vulnerable neighbors and friends. Tariffs that remain on the table among decision-makers will make it harder for families around the country to put food on their own tables.
Taylor Johnson is domestic policy advisor, Policy and Research Institute, with Bread for the World.
